风险事件经历与家庭消费行为——基于群体性和个体性差异的视角Risk Event Experience and Household Consumption Behavior: Based on the Perspective of Group and Individual Differences
路晓蒙,陆艺升,李亚玲
摘要(Abstract)：
本文从群体性和个体性差异的视角入手，对比研究了两种类型风险事件经历对家庭消费行为的影响及其背后的机制。基于CHFS具有全国代表性的5轮非平衡面板微观家庭数据，本文采用PSM-DID方法进行了详细的实证分析。实证结果显示，群体性风险经历和个体性风险经历对家庭消费行为的影响截然不同：经历个体性风险事件的家庭其总消费尤其是医疗消费显著增加，而经历群体性风险事件的家庭其消费行为并无显著变化。进一步分析发现，经历个体性风险事件的家庭受到的政府救济不足且社会互动较少，这是经历两类风险事件家庭的消费行为之间存在差异的重要原因。异质性分析发现，经历风险事件后家庭消费行为的变化在不同家庭抚养负担、政府医疗保障水平以及社会特征下也存在差异。本文的结论强调了政府救济和社会互动对家庭消费行为的积极作用，并呼吁政府在制定风险处理措施时需要充分考虑不同类型风险的差别。
关键词(KeyWords)： 群体性风险经历;个体性风险经历;家庭消费
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目“风险经历与中国家庭金融行为研究——基于群体性和个体性的视角”(基金号:72003149)的资助
作者(Author): 路晓蒙,陆艺升,李亚玲
参考文献(References)：
- 程令国,张晔.2011.早年的饥荒经历影响了人们的储蓄行为吗?---对我国居民高储蓄率的一个新解释[J].经济研究,(8):119-132.Cheng G,Zhang Y.2011.Does famine experience in childhood influence one's saving decision?new explanation of China's high household saving rate[J]Economic Research Journal,(8):119-132.(in Chinese) 郭士祺,梁平汉2014.社会互动、信息渠道与家庭股市参与---基于2011年中国家庭金融调查的实证研究[J]经济研究,49(S1):116-131.Guo Q,Liang H.2014.Social interactions,information channel and household stock market participation:An empirical study based on 2011 Chinese household finance survey[J]Economic Research Journal,49(S1):116-131.(in Chinese) 李华强,范春梅,贾建民,等2009.突发性灾害中的公众风险感知与应急管理---以5·12汶川地震为例[J]管理世界,(6):52-60,187-188.Li Q,Fan M,Jia M,et al.2009.The public perception of risks and the management of emergency measures taken during unexpected calamities[J]Journal of Management World,(6):52-60,187-188.(in Chinese) 李涛2006.社会互动、信任与股市参与[J]经济研究,(1):34-45.Li T.2006.Social interaction,trust,and stock market participation[J]Economic Research Journal,(1):34-45.(in Chinese) 卢晶亮,冯帅章,艾春荣2014.自然灾害及政府救助对农户收入与消费的影响:来自汶川大地震的经验[J]经济学(季刊),13(2):745-766.Lu L,Feng Z,Ai R.2014.The effects of natural disaster and government aid on the income and consumption of rural households:Evidence from Wenchuan earthquake[J]China Economic Quarterly,13(2):745-766.(in Chinese) 路晓蒙,李阳,甘犁,等2017.中国家庭金融投资组合的风险---过于保守还是过于冒进?[J]管理世界,(12):92-108.Lu M,Li Y,Gan L,et al.2017.The risk of Chinese households'financial portfolios[J]Journal of Management World,(12):92-108.(in Chinese) 汪小圈,张红,刘冲2015.幼年饥荒经历对个人自雇选择的影响[J]金融研究,(5):18-33.Wang Q,Zhang H,Liu C.2015.The impact of childhood famine experience on self-employment choices[J]Journal of Financial Research,(5):18-33.(in Chinese) 许荣,赵昶,常嘉路2020.特别重大事故影响个体风险偏好吗?---基于中国家庭金融调查的资产配置实证[J]保险研究,(12):54-69.Xu R,Zhao C,Chang L.2020.Do extraordinarily serious accidents affect individuals'risk preference?-Evidences based on the China household finance survey[J]Insurance Studies,(12):54-69.(in Chinese) 易行健,张波,杨汝岱,等2012.家庭社会网络与农户储蓄行为:基于中国农村的实证研究[J]管理世界,(5):43-51,187.Yi J,Zhang B,Yang D,et al.2012.The family social network and the rural household saving behavior:case study based on China's villages[J]Journal of Management World,(5):43-51,187.(in Chinese) 章元,黄露露2022.社会网络、风险分担与家庭储蓄率---来自中国城镇居民的证据[J]经济学(季刊),22(1):87-108.Zhang Y,Huang L.2022.Social network,risk sharing and household savings rate-Evidence from urban China[J]China Economic Quarterly,22(1):87-108.(in Chinese) Bernile G,Bhagwat V,Rau R.2017.What doesn't kill you will only make you more risk-loving:Early-life disasters and CEO behavior[J]The Journal of Finance,72(1):167-206. Campbell Y.2006.Household finance[J]The Journal of Finance,61(4):1553-1604. Duesenberry S.1949.Income,saving,and the theory of consumer behaviour[M]Cambridge:Harvard University Press. Friedman M.1957.The permanent income hypothesis[M]//Friedman M.Theory of the Consumption Function.Princeton:Princeton University Press,20-37. Gao M,Liu J,Shi S.2020.Do people feel less at risk?Evidence from disaster experience[J]Journal of Financial Economics,138(3):866-888. Guiso L,Sapienza P,Zingales L.2018.Time varying risk aversion[J]Journal of Financial Economics,128(3):403-421. Hibbert M,Lawrence R,Prakash J.2018.The effect of prior investment outcomes on future investment decisions:Is there gender difference?[J]Review of Finance,22(3):1195-1212. Hoffmann O I,Post T,Pennings M E.2013.Individual investor perceptions and behavior during the financial crisis[J]Journal of Banking&Finance,37(1):60-74. Hu C.2022.Social interactions and households'flood insurance decisions[J]Journal of Financial Economics,144(2):414-432. Imas A.2016.The realization effect:Risk-taking after realized versus paper losses[J]American Economic Review,106(8):2086-2109. Keynes M.1936.The general theory of employment,interest and money[M]London:Macmillan. Luhmann N.2017.Risk:sociological theory[M]New York:Routledge. Modigliani F,Brumberg R.1954.Utility analysis and the consumption function:An interpretation of cross-section data[M]//Kurihara K.Post-Keynesian Economics.New Brunswick:Rutgers University Press. Pool K,Stoffman N,Yonker E,et al.2019.Do shocks to personal wealth affect risk-taking in delegated portfolios?[J]The Review of Financial Studies,32(4):1457-1493.
- (1)如2015年追踪2013年样本率、2017年追踪2015年样本率均达80%,2019年追踪2017年样本达50%。 (2)囿于篇幅,PSM匹配效果留存备索。 (3)囿于篇幅,更详细的样本情况说明留存备索。 (4)本文也对标准化后的总消费、医疗消费和非医疗消费进行了检验,囿于篇幅,结果留存备索。 (5)囿于篇幅,稳健性检验结果留存备索。