林婕彤,王歆

• 1:北京大学新结构经济学研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文构建理论模型刻画不规律的官员更替如何通过影响企业主对产业政策稳定性的预期阻碍了企业响应，进而抑制了产业政策有效性，并基于工业企业数据提供了经验证据。结果显示：(1)以补贴衡量的产业政策显著提高了被扶持产业中企业的全要素生产率，但该效应随着官员更替不规律性的增强而下降直至失效；(2)该效应并非由官员任期和地区经济条件等因素驱动；(3)该效应对内资、民营和小型企业，以及投资不可逆程度较强的产业更明显，在中央扶持产业占比较低以及行政级别较低的城市中更明显；(4)官员的不规律更替影响了产业政策对企业扩张决策和投资效率的激励作用。

关键词(KeyWords)： 产业政策;政策稳定性;官员更替

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 林婕彤,王歆

参考文献(References)：

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• ① http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20131225/085517745133.shtml。 (1)https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_2018531。 (2)“新官不理旧账”可理解为“换了一个官,过去的合同就不算了”,即官员更替引起的政府失信和政策不连续性。详见2018年3月,时任总理李克强在答记者问环节的阐释:http://news.cnr.cn/native/gd/20180321/t20180321_524171838.shtml。 (3)例如,当一个地区的官员更替非常不规律时,官员无法预期自己的政绩会在何时被评估,因此可能会倾向于将产业政策提供给一些能够迅速拉高地区投资,但不一定符合当地比较优势的产业。此时,我们无法分辨产业政策的失效是因为政策提供给了错误的产业,还是因为企业主不愿做出响应。 (4)这一衡量方式能够成立的前提是官员更替的确会带来产业政策的预期外变化。我们通过实证分析发现,官员更替的确会导致产业政策的不连续性,即一个地区在市委书记更替当年的产业政策扶持对象变化幅度比非更替年份更大。限于篇幅,结果留存备索。 (5)篇幅所限,未展示控制变量的描述性统计,结果备索。 (6)将样本中LCA的中位数代入可得,表3第(2)～(4)列中产业政策的边际效应分别为0.003、0.001和0。 (7)限于篇幅,稳健性检验结果留存备索。 (8)限于篇幅,异质性检验结果留存备索。