个人破产制度对居民消费的影响研究——基于CFPS数据的经验证据The Effect of Personal Bankruptcy Policies on Household Consumption: Evidence from CFPS Data
贺佳,王佳瑞,田韦仑
摘要(Abstract)：
本文基于2016—2022年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据，结合个人破产试点构造双重差分模型，实证研究了个人破产制度对居民消费的影响。研究结果表明，个人破产制度显著促进了居民消费，通过内生性处理与相关稳健性检验后，该结论依然稳健可靠。机制分析表明，个人破产制度通过缓解居民预防性储蓄动机进而促进消费，具体表现在提升家庭风险偏好，并显著弱化由收入不确定性和健康不确定性引发的预防性储蓄倾向，进而促进居民消费支出。异质性分析显示，对于受教育水平较高、家庭规模较大以及位于市场一体化水平较高地区、服务业水平较高地区的居民来说，个人破产制度促进居民消费的作用更强。此外，个人破产制度显著促进了家庭发展型消费，并降低了恩格尔系数，有助于推动消费升级。进一步分析表明，个人破产制度尚未明显导致家庭过度负债。本研究为评估个人破产制度的经济效应做出了贡献，也为激发居民消费潜力、释放国内市场需求提供了有益的政策参考。
关键词(KeyWords)： 个人破产制度;居民消费;预防性储蓄
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金面上项目“住房财富与消费者行为决策研究—基于多源微观大数据融合分析的视角”(72271130);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“企业人工智能应用对员工消费行为决策的影响研究”(63252076);; 南开大学前沿交叉学科研究院青年重点支持项目“人工智能驱动的劳动力市场变革对居民消费行为决策的影响研究”(92515001)的资助
作者(Author): 贺佳,王佳瑞,田韦仑
参考文献(References)：
- 陈勇吏,朱喜,李经,等.2024.共享单车促进了居民消费吗?[J].经济学(季刊),24(4):1139-1155.Chen L,Zhu X,Li J,et al.2024.Do shared bicycles promote residents'consumption?[J]China Economic Quarterly,24(4):1139-1155.(in Chinese) 甘犁,赵乃宝,孙永智2018.收入不平等、流动性约束与中国家庭储蓄率[J]经济研究,53(12):34-50.Gan L,Zhao B,Sun Z.2018.Income inequality,liquidity constraints and China's household savings rate[J]Economic Research Journal,53(12):34-50.(in Chinese) 贺佳,王佳瑞,郭俊汝2024.商帮文化对企业全要素生产率的影响研究---基于中国A股民营上市公司的经验证据[J]云南财经大学学报,40(1):79-96.He J,Wang R,Guo R.2024.The influence of the merchant guild culture on total factor productivity:Based on the empirical evidence of A-share private listed companies[J]Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,40(1):79-96.(in Chinese) 胡诗阳,尹亮,祝继高2023.破产法庭设立、债权人保护与地方性商业银行风险[J]经济研究,58(12):95-112.Hu Y,Yin L,Zhu G.2023.Bankruptcy court establishment,creditor protection and local commercial bank risks[J]Economic Research Journal,58(12):95-112.(in Chinese) 黄赜琳,秦淑悦2021.市场一体化对消费升级的影响---基于“量”与“质”的双重考察[J]中国人口科学,(5):18-31.Huang L,Qin Y.2021.The impact of market integration on consumption upgrading:study based on“quantity”and“quality”[J]Chinese Journal of Population Science,(5):18-31.(in Chinese) 纪翔阁,潘越,宁博,等2025.个人破产制度与信贷资源供给[J]金融研究,(7):131-148.Ji G,Pan Y,Ning B,et al.2025.Personal bankruptcy system and credit resources supply[J]Journal of Financial Research,(7):131-148.(in Chinese) 李曙光2023.中国个人破产立法的制度障碍及其克服[J]政法论坛,41(5):73-86.Li G.2023.Institutional obstacles and their mitigation in the legislative framework of personal bankruptcy in China[J]Tribune of Political Science and Law,41(5):73-86.(in Chinese) 刘争,黄浩,邓秀月2023.教育会影响家庭参与风险金融市场吗---基于CFPS调查数据的经验证据[J]宏观经济研究,(9):15-32,67.Liu Z,Huang H,Deng Y.2023.Does education affect household participation in risky financial markets:Empirical evidence based on CFPS survey data[J].Macroeconomics,(9):15-32,67.(in Chinese) 沈芳君2021.个人债务集中清理司法探索与个人破产立法设想---以浙江省为主要视角[J]法治研究,(6):33-43.Shen J.2021.Judicial exploration of centralized liquidation of personal debts and legislative assumption of personal bankruptcy[J]Research on Rule of Law,(6):33-43.(in Chinese) 吴琦,邵宝魁,黄诗惠2025.信息消费试点政策的居民消费效应研究[J]经济科学,(3):173-195.Wu Q,Shao K,Huang H.2025.Consumption effect of the information consumption pilot policy[J]Economic Science,(3):173-195.(in Chinese) 徐阳光,韩玥2022.个人破产的三重控制机制:基于个人债务集中清理实践的分析[J]法律适用,(6):121-132.Xu G,Han Y.2022.Triple control mechanism of personal bankruptcy:An analysis based on the practice of centralized liquidation of personal debts[J]Journal of Law Application,(6):121-132.(in Chinese) 姚鹏,王雨彤2025.公共消费能否牵动居民消费[J]财贸经济,46(5):40-56.Yao P,Wang T.2025.Can public consumption lead to resident consumption[J]Finance&Trade Economics,46(5):40-56.(in Chinese) 易行健,张凌霜,徐舒,等2023.商业健康保险、预防性储蓄动机与居民消费支出---理论与经验证据[J]金融研究,(4):130-148.Yi J,Zhang S,Xu S,et al.2023.Commercial health insurance,precautionary motives,and household consumption:Theoretical analysis and empirical evidence[J]Journal of Financial Research,(4):130-148.(in Chinese) 尹志超,刘泰星,张诚2020.农村劳动力流动对家庭储蓄率的影响[J]中国工业经济,(1):24-42.Yin C,Liu X,Zhang C.2020.The influence of rural labor migration on household saving rate[J]China Industrial Economics,(1):24-42.(in Chinese) 尹志超,郭沛瑶2021.精准扶贫政策效果评估---家庭消费视角下的实证研究[J]管理世界,37(4):64-82.Yin C,Guo Y.2021.The impact of targeted poverty alleviation policy on consumption:Evidence from China household finance survey[J]Management World,37(4):64-82.(in Chinese) 尹志超,仇化,潘学峰2021.住房财富对中国城镇家庭消费的影响[J]金融研究,(2):114-132.Yin C,Qiu H,Pan F.2021.The impact of housing wealth on urban household consumption in China[J]Journal of Financial Research,(2):114-132.(in Chinese) 尹志超,张安2025.劳动力流动与农村家庭财务脆弱性[J]财贸经济,46(1):81-98.Yin C,Zhang A.2025.Labor mobility and financial vulnerability of rural households[J]Finance&Trade Economics,46(1):81-98.(in Chinese) 张中祥,胡雅慧2024.数字普惠金融如何影响家庭过度负债?---基于主客观双重视角的微观证据[J]经济学(季刊),24(2):643-660.Zhang X,Hu H.2024.How does digital inclusive finance affect households'over-indebtedness?-Micro evidence based on subjective and objective perspectives[J]China Economic Quarterly,24(2):643-660.(in Chinese) 周颖2024.消费信贷视角下个人破产免责的理念与规则[J]现代法学,46(1):164-176.Zhou Y.2024.The concepts and legal rules of individual insolvency exemption from the perspective of consumer credit[J]Modern Law Science,46(1):164-176.(in Chinese) Berkowitz J,White J.2004.Bankruptcy and small firms'access to credit[J]The RAND Journal of Economics,35(1):69-84. Carroll D.1997.Buffer-stock saving and the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis[J]The Quarterly Journal of Economics,112(1):1-55. Cerqueiro G,Penas F.2017.How does personal bankruptcy law affect startups?[J]The Review of Financial Studies,30(7):2523-2554. Chen D,Zhao J.2017.The impact of personal bankruptcy on labor supply decisions[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,26:40-61. Chen W,Halford T,Hsu C S,et al.2020.Personal bankruptcy laws and corporate policies[J]Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,55(7):2397-2428. Corradin S,Gropp R,Huizinga H,et al.2016.The effect of personal bankruptcy exemptions on investment in home equity[J]Journal of Financial Intermediation,25:77-98. Dobbie W,Song J.2015.Debt relief and debtor outcomes:Measuring the effects of consumer bankruptcy protection[J]American Economic Review,105(3):1272-1311. Fan W,White J.2003.Personal bankruptcy and the level of entrepreneurial activity[J]The Journal of Law and Economics,46(2):543-567. Fossen M.2014.Personal bankruptcy law,wealth,and entrepreneurship-Evidence from the introduction of“fresh start”policy[J]American Law and Economics Review,16(1):269-312. Gropp R,Scholz K,White J.1997.Personal bankruptcy and credit supply and demand[J]The Quarterly Journal of Economics,112(1):217-251.
- (1)资料来源:http://qdzy.sdcourt.gov.cn/dydyqfy/pcgk14/jdal80/7023648/index.html。 (2)处理组城市涉及江苏、浙江、广东、四川、山东五个省份,说明处理组样本不存在明显的地理集中问题。匹配后的全部样本一共涉及21个省份的居民,表明样本具有一定代表性。 (3)虽然本文样本涵盖21个省份,且通过倾向得分匹配的方法提高了试点地区和非试点地区的可比性,但试点地区多为经济发展水平较好的地区,那么匹配后的非试点地区也多为经济发展较好的地区。因此,这一估计结果可能由经济发展水平较高的城市所主导。这意味着,当前所估计的个人破产试点对居民消费较强的促进作用,或许更接近于该政策的效果上限。 (4)参考贺佳等(2024)的做法,本文获取了明清十大商帮的发源地。省份法治环境水平数据来自中国分省份市场化指数中的市场中介组织的发育和法律制度环境水平。 (5)因篇幅限制,回归结果留存备索。 (6)根据全国人口普查数据,2000年我国家庭户平均规模为3.46人/户,2010年降至3.09人/户,2020年进一步下降至2.62人/户。