赵大萍,史历,周宁伟,张琳琬

• 1:首都经济贸易大学金融学院

摘要(Abstract)：

“老有所养”不仅是老年人的基本需求，也是未老者的重要预期，因此养老规划必定是家庭层面福利函数的重要变量。现有文献多把养老金视为既定待遇，忽视居民主动规划对家庭消费可能的影响。本文将居民养老规划分为家庭养老规划、社会养老规划和自我养老规划，通过构建三阶段世代交叠(OLG)模型，从理论层面分析居民养老财务规划对家庭消费水平的影响机制，并使用中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)进行实证检验。研究表明不同的养老规划对家庭消费存在不同影响，家庭养老规划通过遗赠动机抑制家庭消费，社会养老规划通过工作稳定性和预防性储蓄动机促进家庭消费，而自我养老规划通过提高风险金融资产投资与资产配置效率促进家庭消费。异质性分析发现，在家庭关系较紧密的家庭中，家庭养老规划对家庭消费的抑制作用更显著；在人力资本较低与农村地区的家庭中，社会养老规划对家庭消费的促进作用更显著；在不存在流动性约束的家庭中，自我养老规划对家庭消费的促进作用更显著。本文的结论可为代际交叠框架下的消费理论提供中国边际微观证据，为老龄化背景下如何释放消费潜力提供学术参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 养老规划;家庭消费;遗赠动机;预防性储蓄动机;OLG模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金青年项目“人口老龄化对家庭财富不平等的影响及对策研究”(24CJY115)的资助

作者(Author): 赵大萍,史历,周宁伟,张琳琬

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• ① 依据联合国标准，当一国(或地区)60岁及以上人口占比超过10%,即可被视为“老龄化社会”(ageing society);当该比例突破 14%,则进一步升级为“老龄社会”(aged society),或称“深度老龄化社会”。我国2000年第五次人口普查时60岁及以上人口比重达10.33%,至2021年第七次全国人口普查时，同一占比升至18.7%。 (1)12%的居民具有多种养老财务规划。 (2)国家统计局:《人口老龄化及其衡量标准是什么》,2023年1月1日。