Structural Consequences of Aggregate Demand Management Policy Mixes
Bin Zhang;Guangtao Xia;
Abstract：
Expenditure structure, industrial structure and some other key economic indicators of Chinese economy have experienced turning changes since the second decade of 21~(st) century. As for China's aggregate demand management, the investment stimulus implemented by local government has played a more prominent role than the interest rate policy and conventional fiscal policy. We set up a macroeconomic model with the above mentioned Chinese characteristic to analyze the impacts of the interest rate policy and local government investment stimulus on aggregate demand, and display the consequent variations in structural indicators such as the debt leverage, proportion of private investment and consumption rate. Our main finding is that China would achieve a lower debt leverage ratio, higher proportion of private investment and household consumption while effectively stimulating the aggregate demand once the authorities implement a more active interest rate policy rather than the local government investment stimulus.
Key Words：
Foundation: 研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社科基金重大项目“构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局研究”(项目编号:21ZDA008);; 中国社会科学院重点实验室综合资助项目《世界经济预测与政策模拟实验室》(项目编号:2024SYZH003)的资助
Authors: Bin Zhang;Guangtao Xia;
References：
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- (1)鉴于之后的模型主要分析稳态条件下各变量的内在关系,因而各个方程均表达为静态条件下的简化加总形式,不再保留下标t。 (2)地方政府投资函数是本文的一个特色,旨在阐述在中国总需求管理框架下地方政府投资的反应规则。为考察其经验证据,作者选取了2002—2020年期间实际经济增速相对不及预期的样本对地方政府投资函数进行了简单的线性估计,估计结果为:■。经济增速差(实际经济增速与政府预期目标增速之间的差距)的数据,我们引用了Chen et al.(2018)的相关数据并将其拓展到2020年;地方政府投资变化的数据,我们使用万得数据库(Wind)中“县城市政公用设施建设固定资产投资完成额”的变动率作为测度指标。地方政府对经济增速目标差距的投资反应力度(η)的估计值为■,后文在分析不同总需求管理的政策组合时将η的取值范围设定在0～3之间进行考察(0≤η≤3)。