Kaijie Tang;Gongyan Yang;

• 1:School of International Economics and International Relations
• 2: Liaoning University

Abstract：

Geopolitical tensions have disrupted corporate supply chains. The U.S. collaborates with allies in reshaping supply chains to reduce reliance on China, elevating supply chain security to a national security concern. This paper investigates how geopolitical risk(GPR) affects the supply chain security of Chinese enterprises. Using Factset Revere database, we measure the security of Chinese enterprises' supply chains in 32 countries and find that firms with suppliers in higher GPR countries encounter diminished supply chain stability and resilience. GPR primarily undermines the supply chain stability within non-critical and manufacturing sectors, particularly those not in high technology. However, in terms of supply chain resilience, GPR threatens firms across all industries, regardless of strategic importance or R&D capabilities. By segmenting the sample period based on the Crimean Crisis and the Sino-US trade frictions, we find that the threats to supply chain stability and resilience from GPR have progressively emerged. This threat originates from partners' conservative shift in trading strategies and challenges for enterprises in accessing host country information under risks. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that economic nationalism, domestic political maneuvering, and regime changes in host countries amplify the disruptive effects of GPR on supply chain security, with the latter only accelerating the loss of supply chain resilience. In contrast, in high-risk countries, improving political relations, optimizing internal corporate governance, and strengthening connections with stakeholders can be strategic resources to secure corporate supply chains. This study systematically assesses the challenges Chinese supply chains face under GPR and provides insights on safeguarding corporate supply chains under prolonged geopolitical tensions.

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Foundation: 2024年国家社会科学基金重点项目“地缘政治风险对我国企业供应链安全的影响及对策研究”（项目编号：24AGJ008）;; 2023年辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目面上项目（项目编号：JYTMS20230742）;; 2023年度辽宁大学亚洲研究心亚洲问题研究项目重点项目（项目编号：Y202302）的资助

Authors: Kaijie Tang;Gongyan Yang;

References：

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