Jia He;Jiarui Wang;Weilun Tian;

• 1:School of Finance
• 2: Nankai University
• 3:School of Business
• 4: Zhengzhou University

Abstract：

Using data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) between 2016 and 2022, this paper empirically investigates the influence of personal bankruptcy policies on household consumption in China. By leveraging the introduction of pilot bankruptcy programs as a quasi-natural experiment and applying a difference-in-differences(DID) approach, the results show that the implementation of personal bankruptcy systems significantly increases household spending. The results remain robust after accounting for potential biases and conducting various robustness tests. Further analysis reveals that the primary mechanism is through reducing residents' precautionary savings motives. Specifically, the system enhances households' risk appetite and diminishes the tendency to save as a buffer against income and health uncertainties, thereby encouraging higher consumption levels. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effect is stronger among individuals with higher education, larger families, and residents in regions with greater market integration or more developed service sectors. Additionally, the policy promotes consumption related to household development and reduces the Engel coefficient, indicating improved living standards. Importantly, the policy has not led to significant household over-indebtedness. Overall, this paper contributes to understanding the economic benefits of personal bankruptcy policies and offers policy insights to boost household consumption and stimulate domestic demand.

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Foundation: 国家自然科学基金面上项目“住房财富与消费者行为决策研究—基于多源微观大数据融合分析的视角”(72271130);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“企业人工智能应用对员工消费行为决策的影响研究”(63252076);; 南开大学前沿交叉学科研究院青年重点支持项目“人工智能驱动的劳动力市场变革对居民消费行为决策的影响研究”(92515001)的资助

Authors: Jia He;Jiarui Wang;Weilun Tian;

References：

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• (1)资料来源:http://qdzy.sdcourt.gov.cn/dydyqfy/pcgk14/jdal80/7023648/index.html。 (2)处理组城市涉及江苏、浙江、广东、四川、山东五个省份,说明处理组样本不存在明显的地理集中问题。匹配后的全部样本一共涉及21个省份的居民,表明样本具有一定代表性。 (3)虽然本文样本涵盖21个省份,且通过倾向得分匹配的方法提高了试点地区和非试点地区的可比性,但试点地区多为经济发展水平较好的地区,那么匹配后的非试点地区也多为经济发展较好的地区。因此,这一估计结果可能由经济发展水平较高的城市所主导。这意味着,当前所估计的个人破产试点对居民消费较强的促进作用,或许更接近于该政策的效果上限。 (4)参考贺佳等(2024)的做法,本文获取了明清十大商帮的发源地。省份法治环境水平数据来自中国分省份市场化指数中的市场中介组织的发育和法律制度环境水平。 (5)因篇幅限制,回归结果留存备索。 (6)根据全国人口普查数据,2000年我国家庭户平均规模为3.46人/户,2010年降至3.09人/户,2020年进一步下降至2.62人/户。