Ruobing Qin;Hong Ma;Kaiyue Li;

• 1:China Institute for WTO Studies
• 2: University of International Business and Economics
• 3:School of Economics and Management
• 4: Tsinghua University

Abstract：

Lowcarbon development has increasingly become an international consensus. Carbon border adjustment mechanism advanced by developed economies such as the European Union have, in effect, created green trade barriers that threaten China's foreign trade and industrial production. Due to differences in industrial specialization and energy structures, various regions in China can experience heterogeneous impacts, and their decarbonization costs and benefits likewise differ, requiring nuanced strategies considering both overall economic implications and regional disparities. This paper constructs a spatial structure model that integrates China's domestic carbon market, international carbon tariffs, global input-output linkages, and interregional factor mobility. It quantitatively evaluates, under unilateral and plurilateral policy scenarios, how carbon tariffs affect regional economic disparities and explores China's strategic options. This paper finds that the EU's carbon tariff imposes significantly uneven shocks across regions: northern provinces that supply energy-intensive upstream products are hardest hit, thereby widening the north-south income gap. The emergence of a climate club among major developed economies delivers a pronounced negative shock to China's trade interests. Conversely, China's participation in such a club and the acceleration of its own green lowcarbon transition can substantially mitigate overall—and particularly southeastern—income declines, even as they exacerbate economic losses in the northwest and northeast. Finally, this paper examines the effectiveness of horizontal compensation mechanisms and policies to strengthen domestic circulation, offering insights for effectively responding to shifts in global green trade rules and for jointly advancing green, lowcarbon transformation and regional coordinated development.

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Foundation: 国家自然科学基金“碳关税与国际贸易分工调整：政策设计、效应评估与对策研究”（72203038）;; 国家社科基金重大项目“大国竞争背景下关键领域产业链供应链重构的风险评估与对策研究”（23&ZD046）的资助

Authors: Ruobing Qin;Hong Ma;Kaiyue Li;

References：

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• ① 关于碳关税的政策背景详见附录A。通过中国知网可以检索并下载附录，下同。 (1)Zhong and Pei(2022)基于投入产出分析方法讨论了欧盟CBAM对中国不同地区出口的影响,然而投入产出分析方法主要适用于短期分析(林晨和尤晶,2023),难以刻画碳关税对地区经济的一般均衡效应。 (2)未包括西藏自治区和港、澳、台地区。附图B.1展示了2019年各省碳排放总量和碳排放强度。 (3)附图B.2汇报了2019年中国各省能源结构差异;附图B.3展示了1997～2019年中国各省能源密集型行业碳排放演变特征;附图B.4汇报了2019年中国各省能源密集型行业碳排放规模。 (4)附图B.5汇报了省份层面的对欧出口总量和结构差异。 (5)欧盟鼓励生产商和出口商核查并申报产品生产过程中的实际碳排放数据,这意味着未来在实际征收环节,不同地区生产的产品可能面临不同的碳关税率。 (6)化石燃料可以在不同地区和国家之间贸易。为了与文献保持一致,本文设定非化石燃料部门包括J-1个可贸易部门和一个不可贸易部门(即服务业)。 (7)关于模型的完整推导详见附录D。本文构建的静态模型未考虑到长期的技术进步和转型路径差异,在这一模型设定下估算得到的结果,可视为碳关税对地区经济差距的直接影响和短期效应。 (8)考虑到普通关税不随冲击变化,为简化分析本文在基准模型中未考虑关税;加入后结论依旧稳健。中国不同省份之间的贸易存在冰山成本,但是不存在关税和碳关税。 (9)关于理论机制分解的详细推导详见附录E。该分解采用了贸易文献中的经典做法,仅保留一阶效应,因此式(13)为约等号而非等号。 (10)限于篇幅,关于参数校准的详细说明详见附录D参数估计和附表D.1。由于OCED ICIO数据库并未包括列支敦士登,本文仅采用挪威、冰岛、瑞士数据对欧洲自由贸易联盟的各项参数予以估算。 (11)本文考虑了除欧盟以外的其他国家(地区)的碳价;欧盟碳关税征收对象包括中国以及其他国家(或地区)。 (12)如采用欧盟2022年碳价水平计算碳关税,研究结果依然稳健。 (13)如进一步考虑CBAM,根据中国区域碳市场价格对碳关税率校准,研究结果依然稳健。 (14)在校准时,基期的碳关税率为0,总需求和贸易份额均采用基期参数。为保证与基期产出、价格、碳排放水平相一致,本文校准基期参数采用的是2017年各地区碳价水平。 (15)关于气候俱乐部的政策介绍详见附录A。 (16)此处横向补偿机制是给与所有居民的一次性(lump-sum)收入补偿,受益方为消费者,而非针对CBAM征税产品的生产商或出口商。