Daping Zhao;Li Shi;Ningwei Zhou;Linwan Zhang;

• 1:School of Finance
• 2: Capital University of Economics and Business

Abstract：

“Old-age support” is not only a fundamental need for the elderly but also a crucial expectation for those not yet old. Therefore, retirement planning is inevitably an important variable in the welfare function at the household level. Existing literature often treats pensions as predetermined benefits, overlooking the potential impact of residents' proactive planning on household consumption. This paper categorizes residents' retirement planning into familial old-age planning, social old-age planning, and self-old-age planning. By constructing a three-period overlapping generations(OLG) model, it theoretically analyzes the impact of residents' retirement financial planning on household consumption levels and empirically tests this using data from the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS). The study demonstrates that different types of retirement planning have varying effects on household consumption: familial old-age planning suppresses household consumption through bequest motives, social old-age planning promotes household consumption via job stability and precautionary saving motives, while self-old-age planning fosters household consumption through risky financial asset investments and the effectiveness of asset allocation. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that in households with closer family ties, the suppressive effect of familial old-age planning on consumption is more pronounced; in households with lower human capital and those in rural areas, the promotional effect of social old-age planning on consumption is more significant; and in households without liquidity constraints, the promotional effect of self-old-age planning on consumption is more evident. The findings of this paper provide Chinese marginal micro-evidence for consumption theory under the overlapping generations framework and offer academic insights into how to unleash consumption potential against the backdrop of population aging.

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Foundation: 国家社科基金青年项目“人口老龄化对家庭财富不平等的影响及对策研究”(24CJY115)的资助

Authors: Daping Zhao;Li Shi;Ningwei Zhou;Linwan Zhang;

References：

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• ① 依据联合国标准，当一国(或地区)60岁及以上人口占比超过10%,即可被视为“老龄化社会”(ageing society);当该比例突破 14%,则进一步升级为“老龄社会”(aged society),或称“深度老龄化社会”。我国2000年第五次人口普查时60岁及以上人口比重达10.33%,至2021年第七次全国人口普查时，同一占比升至18.7%。 (1)12%的居民具有多种养老财务规划。 (2)国家统计局:《人口老龄化及其衡量标准是什么》,2023年1月1日。