- Zhiwei Xu;Zhewei Zhang;Jinxiang Yu;China Center for Economic Studies, Fudan University;School of Economics, Fudan University;Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University;
Developing a macroeconomic theory for China's transitional economy requires a micro-foundation that accounts for both government and market. This paper proposes a macroeconomic framework featuring endogenous decision-making by multi-layered governments, with central-local strategic interactions and regional competitions. By incorporating the central government's bottom-line constraint and local government performance evaluation, we explore the intrinsic mechanism driving the shift in top-down evaluation systems from single target to multiple targets and the regional spillover effects of endogenous target transformation. This framework captures the endogenous selection and evolution of macroeconomic policies and their transmission across different levels of government and market participants. The paper sheds light on how government behaviors shape macroeconomic dynamics. We apply the theoretical framework to analyze two cases: the transition of environmental policies in the course of economic development and the reform of local government debt. We also discuss potential extensions, including incorporating local governments' explicit constraints, economic uncertainty, and dynamic general equilibrium settings. By adopting a micro-founded perspective on government decision-making, this study provides a rigorous theoretical framework for understanding China's macroeconomic dynamics.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1144K] - Kai Chen;Guangjun Shen;Weishan Tan;Lingnan College, Sun Yat-Sun University;National School of Development, Peking University;
Previous studies find that Okun's Law is invalid in China due to low quality of the unemployment indicators. This study re-examines the validity of Okun's Law in China using Surveyed Unemployment Rate(SUR) newly released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The findings indicate that Okun's Law holds for SUR in China and the results are robust. We also estimate the time-varying natural unemployment rate in China using the state space model and Kalman filter, which reveals that the high unemployment rate for youth after 2020 results from increasing natural unemployment rate. This study contributes to a better understanding of the structural features of China's labor market, and helps improve the effectiveness of the policy of “employment stability”.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1704K] - Yuchen Bian;Glorious Sun School of Business and Management, Donghua University;
The economic consequences of cross-border capital flows must be clarified before further capital account liberalization. This paper analyzes the impact of cross-border capital flows on the dynamic adjustment of the firm's capital structure and the moderating effect of macro-prudential supervision. It finds that cross-border capital flows can reduce the firm's capital structure adjustment speed, and crossborder capital direct investment has the strongest impact. Besides, capital-based macro-prudential supervision can reduce the impact of cross-border capital flows, but loan-based and liquidity-based macroprudential supervision will exacerbate that. Further research indicates that cross-border capital flows reduce the speed of capital structure adjustment of firms with downward and upward capital structure deviation by lowering the debt size and equity size, respectively. In addition, financing constraints and financial flexibility are the channels through which cross-border capital flows affect the firm's capital structure adjustment speed. Furthermore, cross-border capital surges and stops can reduce the firm's capital structure adjustment speed. This study has policy value for the scientific design of the process of capital account liberalization and the macro-prudential supervision framework of cross-border capital flows, thus optimizing the firm capital structure.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1237K] - Chunmian Ge;Xiyue Zhang;Yuyuan Chang;Huiqi Deng;School of Business Administration,South China University of Technology;
Using public data from Chinese A-share listed companies, this paper investigates impact of extreme climate risks on corporate innovation. The results show that the managerial risk perceptions from extreme climate changes exert a constraining effect on companies' innovation efforts, a relationship that holds true across various dimensions of extreme climate events, including scope, magnitude, frequency. This association persists even after accounting for the potential impact of changes in industry policies on firm innovation. Moreover, our analysis suggests that higher-risk response capacity can moderate the negative impact of climate change on company innovation. In addition, companies' digital transformation plays an active role in increasing managers' confidence and activating companies toward climate risks through innovation. In summary, this paper enriches the management and response strategies of enterprises for climate risks through the path of enterprise independent innovation. The implications of this research are significant in terms of promoting corporate innovation, mitigating and addressing substantial risks, and fostering high-quality economic development.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1190K] - Zhengwei Yan;Weijian Lao;Lei Han;Sean Song;School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics;Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;Business School, Xiangtan University;School of Public Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;
Digital finance has had an important impact on family economic activities, but few scholars have studied the impact of digital finance on household charitable giving. Based on Digital Financial Inclusion Index of China and China Family Panel Studies in 2014, 2016 and 2018, this paper investigates the impact of digital finance development on household charitable giving. The result shows that digital finance development significantly promotes household charitable giving, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness tests, including the use of instrumental variables. Mechanism analysis shows that digital finance development mainly promotes household charitable giving through three mechanisms: payment facilitation, information access and social interaction. Heterogeneity analysis shows that digital finance development has a more significant impact on households in rural areas, as well as those with lower human capital, material capital, and social capital. The conclusion of this paper provides a new perspective to explain the significant increase in charitable giving in recent years, and enrich the research literature on the influence of digital finance on family economic activities and social governance.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1210K] - Yuxing Xu;Liping Chu;School of Finance, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics;
The integrated urban-rural pension insurance policy is an important measure to improve the pension security system and promote coordinated economic development between urban and rural areas. It aims to enhance the retirement benefits of rural families, thereby influencing their household economic activities. Based on the 2015 and 2019 China Household Finance Survey data, this study employs the difference-in-differences method to analyze the impact and channels through which the integrated urban-rural pension insurance policy affects the rural household savings rate. The results indicate that the integrated urban-rural pension insurance policy significantly reduces the rural household savings rate. Furthermore, this study further analyzes the channels of impact: the integrated urban-rural pension insurance policy reduces the household savings rate by increasing subsistence consumption and alleviating income uncertainty faced by households. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of the integrated urban-rural pension insurance policy on the rural household savings rate is more pronounced in the central and western regions, lower-educated households, lower-income households, and households in the phase of receiving pension payments. The above findings have theoretical reference value and policy implications for government departments to accurately grasp the direction and intensity of pension insurance reform and improve the pension insurance system for urban and rural residents.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1241K] - Haifeng Nie;Lingnan College, Sun Yat-sen University;
Value-added tax(VAT) is a tax levied on the realized value added in the production and consumption process when the excess VAT input tax credit is carried forward to be deducted in the next period. The refunding of excess VAT input tax credit changes the value-added tax into a consumptionbased value-added tax levied only on final consumption. The tax refund of VAT excess input credit is a deferred tax benefit given to enterprises of a going concern. Tax refund will make the governments' liquidity into enterprises' liquidity, reduce the tax burden of enterprises, but increase the pressure of government financial fund management. The current local sharing mechanism of refunding VAT excess input credit provides the fund cost sharing and refund risk sharing among the participating regions. From the perspective of inter-period revenue sharing and tax refund burden, this paper analyzes the provincial and sub-provincial tax refund sharing mechanism, which results in tax transfer between provinces and cities and the tax transfer between cities and localities in sub province. The current local tax refund sharing mechanism can be regarded as a new inter-regional horizontal transfer payment mechanism which is good to the implementation of refunding policy.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1137K] - Quansheng Gao;Huiling Chen;School of Economics, Wuhan Polytechnic University;Center for Country Economic Development Research in Hubei;Hubei Grain Economy Research Center;
In this paper, we investigate the longevity inflation and its potentially negative consequences to the stability of the Chinese public pension systems. The modelling framework we use builds upon the continuous time life-cycle overlapping generations for an actuarial balanced pension system and an unbalanced pension system. We find that the driving forces of longevity inflation on social security systems are the wealth income effect, the retirement incentive effect and the age structure effect. The in?uence of longevity inflation on the retirement age can be attributed to those three effects in case of the actuarial balance. Longevity inflation affects the pension contribution rate and pension benefit level mainly via the age structure effect and the overall effect of longevity inflation on the two indexes is opposite. The responses of the level of consumption and the pension contribution rate to longevity inflation have two opposite direction and both are affected by the retirement incentive effect. On the aggregate level, the effect of longevity inflation shock is mainly influenced by the external demographic structure for the balanced pension system and by the internal mechanism design of the pension system for the unbalanced pension system. In discrete-time frameworks, balance ratio is further decomposed into the pension wealth effect, the age structural effect, and the inter-generational distribution which is correspondent to the continuous time model. Empirical analysis of the Chinese pension system shows that the influence of longevity inflation to the adequacy, the sensibility and the sustainability of pension system is attributed to the three effects respectively. The evaluation of the risk sharing mechanism of longevity inflation shock of Chinese pension system indicates that much of the risk is mainly borne by pension provider other than pension benefiter.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1670K] - Hao Ren;School of Public Administration, Hunan University;
Policy uncertainty from higher levels of government is an important challenge for local governments' effectiveness. Based on organizational theory, this paper proposes that forming inter-governmental networks is a strategic choice for local governments coping with central government economic policy uncertainty. I empirically test this by using 2005—2019 data on provincial party secretary off-site visits as a proxy for inter-governmental networks. The results show:(1) Central government economic policy uncertainty significantly increases the frequency of provincial party secretaries' off-site visits;(2) Local governments' choices for coping with uncertainty are heterogeneous. Local governments without horizontal inter-governmental ties and with stronger governance capabilities are more likely to strengthen their network connections with other local governments to address central government economic policy uncertainty;(3) Provincial party secretaries' off-site visit positively moderate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and firm innovation, demonstrating the effectiveness of intergovernmental networks in coping with uncertainty.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1152K] - Qifei Chen;Jing Yan;Di Ye;Yaqin Wang;Business School, Nanjing University;School of International Economics and Trade, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics;
Nuclear industry is not only a barometer of a country(region)'s economic development and industrial upgrading, but also an important strategic choice to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. From the perspective of global competition, nuclear energy is reshaping the spatial structure of the global industry, changing the vertical division of labor system, and becoming a driving force for industrial upgrading. This paper collected the data of nuclear power generation in 34 countries(regions) from 1995 to 2018, matched with the world input-output table, and discussed the influence of nuclear industry development on extending the length of global supply chain. The results show that: first, there is a significant positive relationship between the development of nuclear industry and the length of supply chain. The proportion of nuclear power generation in total power generation increased by 1%, and the length of supply chain extended by 0.0247%. Second, the impact of nuclear energy development on the global supply chain length is significantly heterogeneous: for every 1% increase in nuclear energy, the forward correlation degree increases by 0.02%, and the backward correlation degree decreases by 0.0231%. Third,, the mechanism study found that the development of the nuclear industry can optimize the business environment, reduce per capita carbon emissions and improve human capital. In addition, a variety of robustness tests including geographical instrumental variables are also used in this paper, and the Fukushima nuclear leakage event is used as exogenous impact, and the empirical results are consistent. The research of this paper provides theoretical basis for optimizing the energy structure, and also provides policy guidance for the stability and security of China's supply chain.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1781K] - Qi Luo;Kai Chen;Xuesi Zhang;Xiaogang He;School of Statistics and Data Science, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics, Jinan University;School of Digital Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics;
As a new trade format carrying “Internet + foreign trade”, the importance of cross-border e-commerce in improving supply chain efficiency and ensuring supply chain security has become increasingly prominent. Taking the policy of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot area as a quasi-natural experiment, using the data of listed companies in China from 2008 to 2021 and a staggered difference-in-difference approach, this paper systematically examines the impact of cross-border e-commerce development on supply chain efficiency from the perspective of enterprise inventory.The research finds that the development of cross-border e-commerce significantly increases the inventory turnover rate of enterprises, thereby improving the efficiency of the supply chain. This conclusion is still valid after considering a series of factors that may interfere with the estimation results. The main channels for the reform of cross-border e-commerce to improve the efficiency of the supply chain include helping enterprises expand overseas markets, reducing demand uncertainty and promoting the integration of manufacturing and services industries. In addition, the construction of regional information infrastructure and the improvement of the institutional environment have further strengthened the role of cross-border e-commerce reform in the improvement of supply chain efficiency. Under the current background of China's vigorous construction of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones, the research conclusions of this paper provide policy implications for how to enhance the modernization level of the supply chain.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1201K] - Menghan Li;Qi Chen;School of Business,Zhengzhou University;
Under the dual pressure of dual-carbon targets and high-quality economic development, the question of whether carbon emissions trading can promote the coordinated development of enterprise economy and emission reduction by improving corporate carbon performance is an urgent question to be answered. This study takes the pilot of carbon emission trading as a natural experiment. Based on the data of listed industrial enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2008 to 2020, a multi-period difference-in-difference model is applied to study the micro-effects of carbon emissions trading mechanism on corporate carbon performance, and its action mechanism, heterogeneity, spillover effect, and cross-regional transfer phenomenon is analyzed. It is found that carbon trading significantly improves corporate carbon performance by stimulating green innovation. The effectiveness of the improvement is further enhanced by the market mechanisms, such as the liquidity and relative market size of the carbon trading market, as well as the cost-shifting ability of firms. Additionally, non-market mechanisms, such as government environmental concerns and carbon emission reduction pressure, effectively reinforce the impact of carbon trading. The impact of carbon emission trading on corporate carbon performance is particularly pronounced in carbon markets with auction-allocation, heavily-polluting industries, and robust environmental enforcement. There is no significant industry spillover effect, spatial spillover effect, or cross-regional transfer phenomenon for the improvement effect of carbon emissions trading on corporate carbon performance. This study expands the research on the consequences of carbon emissions trading policy, which is of great significance to the green and low-carbon development of firms, the construction of a national carbon market, and the realization of dual-carbon targets.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1391K] - Chenxu Ni;Min Li;Weixiang Pan;Zhen Wang;School of Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Science;Institute of Medical Information and Library, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences &Peking Union Medical College;Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;
To meet the demand for high-quality health and elderly care, integrated medical and nursing care has become an inevitable trend. China has launched two batches of national pilot programs for integrated medical and nursing care, initially exploring a model suited to the national context. However, there is currently a lack of systematic evaluations with policy implications, primarily due to the unclear theoretical mechanisms and specific pathways through which integrated care affects the health of the elderly. This paper utilizes nationally representative longitudinal survey data of the elderly to explore the impact of integrated medical and nursing care policies on the health of the elderly from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Estimates from a difference-in-differences model indicate that the implementation of integrated care policies significantly improves the physical and mental health of the elderly, covering key indicators such as self-rated health, depression risk, and social adaptability. Mechanism analysis reveals that integrated care policies not only provide higher quality and more convenient medical and nursing services for the elderly but also enhance social cohesion on multiple levels. On one hand, integrated care optimizes the allocation of social capital, creating a more friendly living environment for the elderly; on the other hand, the implementation of these policies strengthens the social atmosphere of respecting, loving, and assisting the elderly, significantly enhancing their sense of belonging to their living areas, thereby promoting their psychological well-being. Additionally, integrated care improves the social networks of the elderly, expanding their social interaction scope and providing more emotional support and psychological comfort. Heterogeneity analysis shows that integrated care policies have a more pronounced effect on improving the health of elderly women and those with higher socioeconomic status. At the urban-rural level, the policy effects do not show significant differences, but at the household registration level, the health improvement of local elderly residents is significantly higher than that of non-local residents. From a regional perspective, the policy effects are greater in economically developed areas with richer medical resources. This reflects the current inadequacies in the equity of integrated care services. The findings of this study have important practical implications for comprehensively evaluating the effects of integrated care policies and optimizing the existing operational models of integrated care.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1299K] - Liyang Xu;School of Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;
The expansion and development of China's agriculture facilitates the establishment of a “dual circulation” development pattern whereby domestic and foreign markets can boost each other, with the domestic market as the mainstay. To foster the further development of agriculture, more input —especially in terms of time commitment—should be made in agricultural production in the short and medium term.Thus we focus on the working hours distribution of rural residents in the agricultural and non-agricultural sector in this paper. Several results of this paper are noteworthy. First, theoretically, the working hours of rural residents are positively correlated with social capital in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. And in the agricultural sector, there is also a positive relationship between agro-technical training time and working time of rural residents.Second, the main regression results show that social capital and agro-technical training time have a statistically significant positive impact on farmers' labor time in the non-agricultural and agricultural sectors respectively. But both effects are not significant economically. Third, the conclusions of the empirical analysis are robust and the possible heterogeneity between different groups and the endogeneity of agricultural technology training have no substantial impact on the regression results of the main explanatory variables.Fourth, the mechanism test shows that social capital acts on the working hours in the non-agricultural sector by influencing the wage of farmers in the non-agricultural sector, while agro-technical training time affects the working hour in the agricultural sector by influencing the wage of farmers in the agricultural sector.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1243K] - Min Deng;Chenyu Pan;Jiancheng Li;Customs and Public Administration College, Shanghai Customs University;Business School, East China University of Political Seience and Law;School of Economics and Trade, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies;
Globalization and scientific and technological progress determine that high-quality innovative achievements are increasingly completed by scientific research teams with complex background. The trend of fractional authorship is vast. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the National Innovative City Pilot Policy, this paper constructs a DID model, and analyzes the quality catch-up effect of the pilot policy on urban innovation from the perspective of the patent fractional authorship mechanism inside and outside the city. The results show that: in the short term, the national innovative city pilot policy has significantly stimulated the growth of innovation quality rather than quantity in Chinese cities. Cities with low market, cultural segmentation and large city scale are more likely to benefit from the pilot policy, and the innovation pilot policy also has the adjacency effect. A large part of the source of urban innovation quality growth is attributed to the transformation of patent production mode from enterprise independence to enterprise cooperation innovation. Moreover, the improvement in the quality of innovation due to collaborative R&D among firms within the city accounted for a higher proportion of the total effect of the pilot policy than collaborative patenting among firms outside the city. This paper points out that the pilot policy mainly brings about the quality growth of strength rather than the growth of innovation quantity, which provides an important identification path for how to balance the innovation efficiency under the background of the new scientific and technological revolution. That is to promote the quality of urban innovation through implementing pilot policies and promoting efficient cooperation among urban innovation subjects, which will ultimately benefit a country.
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 1241K]
2025 01 v.12;No.45 [Abstract][OnlineView][Download 237K]